Beware of Cornered Clintons

Harold Ickes is a longtime Clinton Loyalist. He was one of Hillary Clinton's closed circle of elitists involved in her health care reform debacle. More recently, as a Democratic party official he was among those who ruled that Florida and Michigan should be penalized for scheduling their primaries too early.

That ruling, of course, came when Hillary Clinton was deemed the "inevitable" nominee of her party. Now, when she is far from inevitable, Harold Ickes has changed his mind. Now, still a member of the party hierarchy, he advocates that delegates from both Florida and Michigan be counted. Why? Because in addition to his position in the DNC he is also a senior figure in the Clinton campaign. And counting those delegates will help Clinton. (Note that I refer simply to "Clinton" without differentiating between Hillary and Bill.)

But isn't that a conflict of interest? Shouldn't Ickes recuse himself from DNC issues that would benefit one candidate over the other? Shouldn't DNC officials be somewhat neutral? Of course. But does the Clinton coterie care about conflicts of interest? No. It cares about only one thing: getting Hillary (Billary) back into the White House at all costs.

Like a cornered wolverine, the Clintons are snarling and baring sharp teeth. There is something blocking their way out of the corner: Barack Obama. They will attack, ripping, biting, and slashing with the ferocity that has come to characterize their survival instinct.

If, however, the nomination goes to Billary and there is even the slightest whiff of foul play, here is what will happen. Howard Dean and others take note. The hordes of young people that so fervently support Obama will desert. Go home. They and hundreds of thousands of others will revert to their justifiable cynicism about the process and simply ignore politics as they did before Obama. African Americans will do the same.

This is true because Obama's support is fervent and heartfelt. It comes from the gut. People sense that he represents a defining moment in history. Support for Hillary comes from some sense that she is due. Segments of Hillary's female constituency believe, as does she, that she's entitled. If you memorize 500 talking points and position papers and you're Bill Clinton's wife, well then by golly it's your turn. It's easy to imagine large numbers of Clinton supporters migrating to Obama if he's the nominee. The reverse doesn't hold true for Hillary. People don't react well to arrogant technocrats.

Independents, another key Obama constituency, will take a closer look at McCain. And a Billary nomination will galvanize Republicans, driving many who are skeptical of McCain into casting a vote for him out of fear and loathing of a Clinton White House. It will be next to impossible for the Democrats to win the White House based solely on the lukewarm support of white women over 55 and and dwindling numbers of blue-collar workers.

None of this will give pause to the Clintons and their loyalists. Their quest began when Bill left the White House smeared in shame and degradation. They have carefully plotted and schemed ever since. Now there is something blocking their way. Beware.